作者：海伯陵
来源：原创
时间：2026-08-26
阅读：670865 次
一袋女王
GOP Not Shying Away From Abortion_我的网站
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“C罗今年夏天会去哪里？”这是英国广播公司（BBC）抛出的疑问。
Republican presidential candidates have been one-upping each other on abortion limits and bans, with participants in this week's GOP primary debate vowing to sign a federal ban on the procedure.
The Democrats' response has been to bury Republicans with their own words, including with a national ad the Biden-Harris campaign released Friday featuring clips of former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina pledging to stop abortion – by punishing women who have one, in Trump's case.
Since the 2022 Supreme Court decision taking away guaranteed abortion rights, both parties have elevated the issue in their campaigns. And both think it will be a winner for them in 2024.
"These guys showed us this week they don’t have a clue about the power of women," President Joe Biden said on social media, releasing his and Vice President Kamala Harris' new ad. "They are about to find out."
The campaign is spending $25 million to run the ad online and in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, meanwhile, said during Wednesday night's debate in Milwaukee that he is a "champion for life" who would sign a ban on abortion after 15 weeks. When Nikki Haley, a former U.S. ambassador who also opposes abortion, countered that the votes aren't there in the Senate to overcome a filibuster, Pence shot back, saying, "Consensus is the opposite of leadership."
DeSantis, meanwhile, bragged about his signing of a six-week abortion ban in Florida, while Scott said he would back the 15-week ban. In April, Scott said in an interview with NBC News that he would sign "the most conservative, pro-life” legislation into law."
That's an approach that plays very well with the GOP primary electorate, which largely opposes abortion. A recent CBS/YouGov poll found that 68% of Republican voters think abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.
And Republicans – like Democrats – aren't shying away from the issue.
“I was very pleased to see them talk about abortion,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel told Fox News the morning after the debate. “Democrats used that in 2022. ... If our candidates aren’t able to fend a response and put out a response, we’re not going to win. They’re going to do it again in 2024. And I thought all of them did a really good job on that.”
But since the June 2022 ruling Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, the pro-abortion rights side has become newly energized. While anti-abortion forces have had success in the courts (the South Carolina state Supreme Court this week upheld a near-total ban on abortion), abortion foes have been losing consistently when the matter is put directly before voters – a troubling trend for anti-abortion forces ahead of what is expected to be a highly competitive 2024 election.
Since Dobbs, voters in California, Michigan and Vermont approved referendums to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitutions, unsurprising for three states where Democrats are in control. But in three red states – Kansas, Kentucky and Montana – measures to reject guaranteed abortion rights were defeated.
Further, Ohio voters overwhelmingly this month rejected a measure that would require a supermajority of 60% to pass a state constitutional amendment. That means abortion rights advocates will have a much easier time winning a referendum on the ballot this fall to ensure abortion rights. Polling shows strong support for that measure.
More problematic for Republicans going forward – at least from an electoral perspective – is a slate of referendums proposed for 2024 state ballots. In Arizona, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, New York and South Dakota, advocates are pushing for votes to protect reproductive rights. Abortion foes are trying to get referendums on the ballot in Iowa, Nebraska and Pennsylvania to prohibit abortion or to state clearly that the state constitution does not guarantee the right to abortion.
The fate of those ballot initiatives (should activists indeed get the signatures required to get them on the ballot) may be secondary to another factor: voter turnout.
In Arizona, a state Biden won by a razor-thin 10,457 votes, the referendum could spur pro-abortion rights voters to go to the polls – perhaps providing a critical difference for an incumbent president who, polling indicates, does not inspire excitement among Democrats. The same may well be true in Pennsylvania, a state Biden won by 81,660 votes – about 0.2% of the voting electorate.
"I think what we’ve seen here is across partisan lines, in red, blue and purple states, voters have made themselves clear – they want to protect reproductive freedom," says Ally Boguhn, spokesperson for NARAL Pro-Choice America. "I do think we're going to continue to see this as something that will drive them to the polls."
Republicans argue that forging ahead with abortion bans, taking advantage of the free-for-all created by the Dobbs ruling, will motivate their voters as well.
Cindy Dahlgren, a spokesperson for the Center for Arizona Policy, which opposes the referendum enshrining abortion rights, says there will be "plenty of reasons turnout will be high in 2024," including inflation and the fact that it is a presidential year.
The proposed Arizona referendum, she says, goes too far.
"It would make regulating abortion virtually impossible and that is not where Arizonans are on abortion and why abortion law should be set by lawmakers who can make changes to the law as needed," Dahlgren says.
But polling indicates that Democrats have an edge on motivating their voters around the abortion issue.
A Kaiser Family Foundation survey in May found that 30% of voters will cast a ballot only for a candidate who agrees with them on abortion. Broken down, that includes 46% of Democrats, 23% of independents, and 20% of Republicans, suggesting Democrats are more likely to make abortion rights a litmus test issue.
Further, Democrats have an edge among self-described independents in the poll, with 36% of independents saying Democrats more closely represented their views on abortion and 13% saying Republicans' views on the issue were closer to their own.
Mary Owens, communications director for SBA Pro-Life America, says the anti-abortion movement needs to learn the lessons from Ohio to win next year.
"So far, in all of the state battles, our side has failed to take this approach, allowing the left and pro-abortion industry and allies to define the effort," Owens says. "We must define the issues at stake early and often with a simple message."
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B | 这位葡萄牙国脚在2021至2022赛季前重返曼联，帮助球队在英超联赛中打入18球。当然，C罗更希望自己能在欧洲冠军联赛取得进球，但曼联却以英超第6的成绩无缘下赛季欧冠。英国《天空体育》称，C罗应当在4日与曼联队友汇合，但这位37岁的足坛巨星因家庭原因没有回到卡灵顿基地。截至6日，他连续三天未现身。德甲拜仁慕尼黑、英超切尔西、西甲巴塞罗那……这份与C罗传出绯闻的俱乐部名单，越来越长。为什么要离开曼联？《天空体育》分析称，一方面，C罗的经纪人豪尔赫·门德斯一直在向其他俱乐部兜售这位巨星。另一方面，曼联重申这名前锋是“非卖品”。不过，“红魔”的立场预计会伴随着报价到来而“软化”。美国体育媒体《The Athletic》发现一处细节：自今年6月25日之后，曼联官方就没有在社交平台上发布过有关C罗的消息。而在上赛季不同阶段，C罗私下曾对球队糟糕的表现表示不满，甚至质疑球队的管理层没有纠错能力。有推测指出，C罗在今年6月初接受采访时表示自己在曼联“非常开心”，但他对俱乐部的担忧也与日俱增。曼联在上赛季排名英超第6，并失去保罗·博格巴、内马尼亚·马蒂奇、埃丁森·卡瓦尼、胡安·马塔和杰西·林加德等一众球员。
C | 这样的结果让C罗准备开辟新道路，以期能转会到一家可征战欧冠的俱乐部。仍未现身8日，曼联将飞赴泰国曼谷，开启球队季前热身赛之旅，C罗届时能否随队亮相目前还不明确。曼联将与利物浦、水晶宫、墨尔本胜利和阿斯顿维拉进行热身赛，由于这些比赛带有商业性质，赞助商希望C罗能够出场，如果葡萄牙人最终缺席，曼联将面临处罚。BBC也分析了葡萄牙球星的潜在下家：德甲豪门拜仁有签下C罗的需求。不过，拜仁刚为引入马内花费3000万英镑，球队再度引进大牌的可能性不大。德国《图片报》表示，拜仁不会追求C罗，他的高工资可能会破坏球队的薪金结构。正试图重建的巴萨会签下C罗吗？美国网站“球迷之家”称，尽管传出门德斯与巴萨主席拉波尔塔会面的消息，但巴萨并不是葡萄牙人今夏目的地。毕竟C罗被视为皇家马德里的传奇人物，转会“死敌”不太可能，巴萨的财务状况也不理想。在失去卢卡库之后，切尔西阵中腾出一名前锋的位置。不过，考虑到卢卡库都不适应切尔西主帅图赫尔的战术，C罗也未必合适。那么，拥有梅西、姆巴佩和内马尔的巴黎圣日耳曼会不会向C罗抛出橄榄枝？大巴黎显然“不差钱”，但如果C罗加盟会让新主帅加尔蒂埃感到“头疼”，这样操作的可能性也不大。C罗也有可能留守曼联，毕竟他与球队的合约还未结束。《天空体育》认为，C罗还有前往美国踢球的愿望，但不会在今夏。巴黎新帅曾效力甲AC罗转会风波只是欧洲足坛夏季转会窗口的一个缩影。
D | 德国《转会市场》列出目前英超六强引援名单：曼城引入哈兰德、菲利普斯和奥尔特加；利物浦招入努涅斯、卡瓦略和拉姆齐；热刺招徕里沙利松、比苏马、佩里西奇和福斯特；阿森纳拿下热苏斯、维埃拉、特纳和马尔基尼奥斯；曼联也有马拉恰。目前还没有动静的英超强队，恰恰就是与C罗传出绯闻的切尔西。主帅转会也是一大看点。上文提到的巴黎圣日耳曼新帅加尔蒂埃，他接过波切蒂诺的教鞭，新合同直至2024年6月30日。
E | 现年55岁的加尔蒂埃在球员时代曾出现在中国甲A赛场，并在辽宁队退役。退役后他分别在圣埃蒂安、里尔和尼斯执教。
F | 在2020至2021赛季，他带领里尔夺取法甲冠军，上赛季率尼斯夺得法国杯亚军。
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